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4.1 INTRODUCTION
Section 15126(g) of the CEQA Guidelines requires the following: "Discuss the ways in which the proposed project (Specific Plan), could foster economic or population growth, or the construction of additional housing, either directly or indirectly, in the surrounding environment ----." Increases in the population may further tax existing community service facilities, so consideration must be give to this impact. "Also discuss the characteristics of some projects which may encourage and facilitate other activities that could significantly affect the environment, either individually or cumulatively. It must not be assumed that growth in any area is necessarily beneficial, detrimental, or of little significance to the environment."
In short, CEQA requires a discussion of how a project could contribute to population, employment, or housing growth in surrounding areas and the impacts resulting from this growth. This section of the EIR discusses the manner in which the Specific Plan project would affect growth. CEQA Guidelines indicate that a project would normally have a significant effect on the environment if it would "induce substantial growth or concentration of population."
4.2 BROOKTRAILS TOWNSHIP SPECIFIC PLAN
The Specific Plan project would guide and accommodate growth by facilitating new residential and commercial space within Brooktrails Township. However, it is important to note, as specified previously (refer to Section 2, Project Description), Brooktrails Township is an existing community, and without the Specific Plan is envisioned as accommodating approximately 6,000 residential units. Thus, the Specific Plan which plans for development up to 4,000 units would be growth accommodating, and not necessarily directly growth inducing. To this extent, the Specific Plan would also predict residential growth within the Township. The Specific Plan sets in place policies that will help to define and direct future growth within the Township. The Specific Plan also provides land use designations and development densities for all lands which are currently vacant or underutilized. As such, the Specific Plan is intended to guide and accommodate residential growth and population increases within Brooktrails Township.
At buildout, the Township would contain 4,000 equivalent residential units which would support a population of about 9,919 residents (estimated at 2.6 persons per unit). This growth would then create two types of secondary growth: The first type of secondary growth would stem from the secondary or "induced" employment generated by the economic activity occurring in the commercial space developed in response to the increased population base at Brooktrails. The second type of secondary growth would consist of new households formed by the new employees working in new businesses in the region. These new households could choose residential locations within the Township or surrounding area.
The secondary growth would not automatically create direct environmental impacts in and of itself. This potential is realized to the extent that new residential development in the Township would be consistent with the provisions of the Specific Plan. If that happens, then it can be assumed that the secondary households' demand for a residential location was fulfilled by the additional housing stock.
Secondary employment is generated by a direct increase in economic activity. It is due to the increases in spending that would occur on the part of the businesses, employees, and employee households related to the direct increase in economic activity. It is also due to the additional spending that would occur on the part of suppliers of the goods and services demanded by direct economic activity (businesses, employees and primary and secondary households), plus the additional spending on the part of the suppliers' additional employees and related households. Production, employment, and households would increase with each new round of spending, but at a decreasing rate with each additional round.
4.3 INFRASTRUCTURE AND SERVICES
Growth in a given area may be induced by removing infrastructural barriers, by providing new infrastructure and/or improving transportation access. The growth-inducing potential of new infrastructure within the Specific Plan area would be significant if the Specific Plan created the capacity to accommodate growth above and beyond what was envisioned under the Specific Plan itself. Infrastructure projects of road widenings, new roads, expanded sewer and water and drainage systems are established to serve the Specific Plan area up to a maximum of 4,000 units and not areas outside Brooktrails Township. Parcels that have been without sewer service in the Specific Plan area would have direct access to expanded sewer services consistent with the financing provisions of the Specific Plan.
To accommodate growth, the Specific Plan has been structured to allow for the provision of infrastructure and services. For example, through the Plan's goals and implementation policies, provisions are made for providing for transportation and infrastructure improvements to serve the Township as explained previously, protecting existing environmental resources, protecting public health, ensuring appropriate public investments, providing for recreation improvements, and other community services.
In General, growth can only happen through capital investment in new economic opportunities by the private or public sectors (predominantly the former). Development pressures are created by the desires of investors to mobilize their resources in a particular region or locality. These pressures help to structure the local politics of growth and the local jurisdiction's posture on growth management and land use policy. The growth-inducing potential or pressure created by a project is therefore mediated by the locality itself.
4.4 FUTURE DEVELOPMENT
Growth resulting from future development within the Specific Plan Area would be secondary in nature. The development of currently vacant or underutilized land normally has secondary growth-inducing impacts in terms of intensified land use, increased job opportunities as noted above, increased tax revenues and greater demands (impacts) on transportation, circulation and public service facilities, including sewer and water supply as described in the respective sections of this EIR.
Residential construction would generate jobs in the construction, materials fabrication and supply industries up until the time of construction completion. The provision of construction jobs would create secondary (i.e., incremental) demand for local goods and services. Cumulative development, inclusive of the construction of other projects in the Willits area outside the Township would magnify the need for materials and services relating to the construction industry.
It would be expected that most of the labor force constructing residences within the Township would be hired from within Mendocino County, and that some employees currently working on construction in the area might transfer from those projects when completed, to construction within the Township. This is because most construction would be initiated by individuals rather than large development companies, and the construction of individual residences would not constitute projects of a size needing to draw from a regional labor market. In sum, construction within the Township would increase economic and employment activity in proportion to the size and number of units constructed in any given year.
Housing construction within the Township can be considered growth accommodating in that it would partially meet the projected need for housing in Mendocino County. The Specific Plan rezones nine commercially zoned parcels to residential use and three sites totaling about six acres would be down-zoned from multiple or two-family use either in recognition of existing land uses on these sites or to achieve a compatible tie between steeper terrain and feasible land uses. Construction of the housing would not in and of itself remove obstacles to growth.
In summary, growth and the rate of growth shapes both the physical and social structure of communities. As indicated above, the Specific Plan project and its developmental components would contribute to growth within Brooktrails Township. Within the context of cumulative area development, the Specific Plan project would not generate significant growth inducing impacts.
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